Estimating the potential distribution of climatically suitable habitats for different species is important for developing targeted and adaptable biodiversity conservation strategies. However, such crucial information remains limited for obligate scavengers such as the Critically Endangered (CE) African White-backed Vulture (AWbVs) Gyps africanus.

In a study published in Integrative Conservation, researchers applied the MaxEnt and BIOCLIM SDMs to conduct the first assessment of how climatic constraints may influence the current and future geographic distribution of a sample of six AWbVs tracked within Zimbabwe's Hwange ecosystem.

They firstly evaluated how current and projected climate scenarios for 2050 and 2070 may affect the geographical distribution of climatically suitable environments for the AWbVs. Secondly, they investigated the potential for range expansion, contraction, or shifts under these future climate scenarios and identify areas expected to remain climatically stable despite projected changes.

Afterwards, they assessed whether these geographical shifts in suitable environments are concentrated within or outside the boundaries of gazetted protected areas, using the Transfrontier Conservation Areas (TFCA) network of Southern Africa as a framework to infer the relevance of protected areas under projected climate scenarios. Finally, they used climate envelope plots generated through the BIOCLIM model to demonstrate the extent of AWbVs tolerance ranges for relevant bioclimatic variables.

The results showed that protected areas are expected to maintain suitable climatic conditions under these scenarios. In addition, the models predict a significant expansion of suitable habitats for AWbVs by 2050 and 2070, extending towards human-dominated landscapes.

Their findings provide useful information that can be harnessed to guide current and future conservation interventions for this species.