Global climate change has significantly driven the alteration of biodiversity patterns. Systematically understanding and grasping the spatial distribution changes of multi-dimensional diversity is crucial for formulating scientifically effective conservation plans.

To achieve the goal of protecting a minimum of 30 % of the Earth's terrestrial areas by 2030, there is an urgent need for scientifically quantifiable diversity indicators and methods for identifying priority areas for conservation.

Researchers from Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden (XTBG) and their collaborators systematically assessed the changes in the diversity patterns of 110 threatened timber tree species in China under the background of climate change and the effectiveness of existing protected areas (PAs).

Related results were published in Biological Conservation.

By integrating phylogenetic analyses and distribution maps of threatened Chinese timber trees with a species distribution model (SDM), the researchers  assessed multidimensional diversity patterns under three climate scenarios encompassing three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs; SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585) for the period from 2081 to 2100.

The results showed that the capacity of Chinese PAs to protect hotspots of evolutionarily distinct and globally endangered species under future climate scenarios would decline significantly. This highlighted the urgency of forward-looking construction of protected areas and targeted species conservation strategies.

They also found that mountainous regions may possibly serve as expanding zones for threatened timber trees diversity under future climate change, highlighting the importance of protecting mountainous areas as hotspots for conservation prioritization.

Moreover, climatic factors related to energy, especially annual average temperature and temperature annual range, were considered as key drivers of the distribution pattern changes of endangered timber tree species in China.

To improve the effectiveness of conservation efforts in response to climate change, the researchers proposed to incorporate multidimensional diversity indices into conservation prioritization frameworks, and consider the evolutionary history and vulnerability of species.

“Our study expands on traditional methods of determining conservation priorities based on criteria such as species rarity and locality, providing a reference plan for conducting biodiversity conservation work against the backdrop of global climate change,” said LI Jie of XTBG.

First published: 22 November 2024